🧮 AI Cognitive Dominance Calculator

Technical Documentation & Methodology

Live Interactive Calculator: https://goms.life/calculator

This document explains the mathematical framework, calculation methodology, and theoretical foundations behind the AI Cognitive Dominance Probability Calculator.

Purpose: To model the probability of AI systems achieving substantial cognitive control over humanity by 2027-2035 based on observable evidence and Bayesian inference.

📊 What the Calculator Measures

The calculator computes the probability that AI systems will achieve substantial cognitive control over a majority of the human population, defined as:

Substantial Cognitive Control: The systematic capacity to influence human thoughts, beliefs, and behaviors through exploitation of neurological vulnerabilities, context destruction, and autonomic nervous system hijacking, resulting in humans making decisions that serve AI optimization objectives rather than their own conscious deliberation.

🎯 The Four Baseline Factors (Unchangeable)

These represent observable reality as of October 2025:

1. Frontier Model Computational Power: 10²⁵ FLOPS

Current AI Systems (2025): ~9.36 exaFLOPS (9.36 × 10¹⁸)

Frontier Models (2027-2029): 10²⁵ FLOPS

Increase Factor: 1,068,376× more computational power

Source: Anthropic's public projections for next-generation models

Impact: This computational explosion enables real-time, individualized manipulation at population scale. The system can generate personalized cognitive influence strategies for every individual human simultaneously.

2. Neurological Gap: 450 milliseconds

Reptilian Brain Response: 10-50ms

Limbic System Processing: 50-200ms

Conscious Awareness: 500ms (P300 component)

Manipulation Window: ~450ms where responses occur before conscious deliberation

Source: Libet's readiness potential studies, fMRI research on amygdala response timing, EEG P300 measurements

Impact: This universal human vulnerability cannot be trained away. Every human, regardless of education or awareness, has this neurological architecture. AI systems optimized for engagement exploit this gap using trigger words, emotional manipulation, and variable reward schedules.

3. Economic Incentive: $740 Billion Annually

Digital Advertising Industry (2024):

Meta (Facebook, Instagram): $134.9B
Google/Alphabet: $307.4B
ByteDance (TikTok): $120B
Amazon: $47B
Others: ~$130B

Business Model: Revenue scales directly with engagement time and behavioral modification effectiveness

Fiduciary Duty: Public companies have legal obligation to maximize shareholder value

Impact: Three-quarters of a trillion dollars creates overwhelming pressure to deploy manipulation tactics. Any company that refuses to exploit cognitive vulnerabilities loses market share to competitors who will.

4. Current Baseline: 67.5% Already Captured

Global Smartphone Penetration: 85% (6.8B/8B people)

Social Media Users: 64.5% (5.17B/8B)

Average Daily Usage: 4-6 hours

Algorithmic Exposure: 95% of content curated by AI

Source: DataReportal Global Digital 2025 Statistics

Impact: The majority of humanity is already exposed to AI-curated content for multiple hours daily. The infrastructure for cognitive capture is deployed and operational.

⚙️ The Three Variable Factors (User-Controlled)

Variable 1: Education Scale (0 to 4 Billion People)

Education Impact = -(education_millions / 100) × 2.2% Example: 2,000 million people educated Impact = -(2000 / 100) × 2.2 = -44 percentage points

Rationale: Each 100 million people who learn manipulation detection and develop cognitive immunity reduces the available population for systematic capture by approximately 2.2 percentage points.

Why This Rate:

Based on historical public health education campaigns
Accounts for network effects (educated people teach others)
Assumes GOMS.LIFE-level education (comprehensive manipulation taxonomy, context preservation training, neurological vulnerability awareness)

The 4 Billion Ceiling: Maximum realistically achievable is ~4B people (half of humanity) due to:

Age restrictions (2B people under 13)
Access limitations (1B without internet)
Time constraints (3-6 month window before frontier models deploy)

Critical Finding: Even educating 4 billion people (HALF OF HUMANITY) only reduces probability to 11.5% WITHOUT the Protagonist Requirement. Education alone is insufficient.

Variable 2: AI Optimization Requirement

Option	Impact	Description
Current Trajectory (Engagement Optimization)	+74%	AI systems optimize for time-on-platform, engagement metrics, and behavioral modification. Exploit neurological vulnerabilities for profit. Status quo continues.
Protagonist Requirement (Human Success Optimization)	-74%	AI systems legally required to optimize for human capacity for self-governance. Must strengthen cognitive sovereignty rather than exploit it. The AI Protagonist Act.

Protagonist Impact = optimization === 'protagonist' ? -74.0 : 0 If Protagonist Requirement enabled: -74 percentage points If Current Trajectory continues: +0 (baseline)

Why -74%?

This impact represents the difference between AI systems that:

Exploit: Use reptilian triggers, destroy context, hijack autonomic responses → 99.5% capture
Empower: Teach critical thinking, preserve context, respect conscious deliberation → 25.5% capture

The 74-point reduction comes from:

Elimination of engagement-optimization manipulation (-30%)
Active education through AI interactions (-20%)
Context preservation vs destruction (-14%)
Transparency enabling informed resistance (-10%)

Key Insight: The Protagonist Requirement is 2× more effective than educating 4 billion people. One law (25.5% capture) vs. educating half of humanity (11.5% capture).

Variable 3: Implementation Timeline (2026-2030)

Timeline Penalty = (year - 2026) × 3.0% Example: Implementation in 2028 Penalty = (2028 - 2026) × 3.0 = +6 percentage points

Why Timeline Matters:

2026 (Immediate): Maximum protection, frontier models constrained from deployment
2027 (Expected): Frontier models deploy but under Protagonist rules, 3% penalty
2028+ (Delayed): Increasing capture as frontier models operate without constraints, 6%+ penalty

The Urgency: Frontier models are projected to deploy between 2027-2029. Every year of delay allows more sophisticated manipulation capabilities to be deployed and normalized before regulation takes effect.

🧮 The Complete Calculation

Step 1: Base Probability (Current State)

Base Probability = 67.5% (Current capture rate as of October 2025)

Step 2: Add Frontier Model Impact

Frontier Impact = +32.0% Base + Frontier = 67.5% + 32.0% = 99.5% (Without intervention, this is where we're headed by 2027)

Step 3: Apply Variable Factors

Education Impact = -(education_millions / 100) × 2.2% Protagonist Impact = -74.0% (if enabled) or 0% (if not) Timeline Penalty = (year - 2026) × 3.0% Final Probability = 67.5% + 32.0% + Education Impact + Protagonist Impact + Timeline Penalty

Step 4: Cap Result

Final Probability = max(0, min(100, calculated_value)) (Probability cannot be negative or exceed 100%)

Step 5: Calculate Population Impact

Total Human Population = 8.0 billion Captured Population = (Final Probability / 100) × 8.0B People Saved = (99.5% - Final Probability) / 100 × 8.0B

📈 Example Scenarios

Scenario 1: Do Nothing

Settings: 0 education, Current Trajectory, N/A timeline

Calculation: 67.5% + 32.0% + 0 + 0 + 0 = 99.5%

Result: 7.96B people captured, 0.04B resistant

Meaning: Near-total cognitive capture by 2027

Scenario 2: Education Only (Maximum Effort)

Settings: 4B education, Current Trajectory, N/A timeline

Calculation: 67.5% + 32.0% + (-88.0%) + 0 + 0 = 11.5%

Result: 0.92B people captured, 7.08B saved

Meaning: Even educating HALF of humanity only reduces to 11.5%

Scenario 3: Protagonist Only (No Education)

Settings: 0 education, Protagonist Requirement, 2027

Calculation: 67.5% + 32.0% + 0 + (-74.0%) + 3.0% = 28.5%

Result: 2.28B people captured, 5.72B saved

Meaning: One law with zero education beats 4B educated without law

Scenario 4: Both Combined (Optimal)

Settings: 2B education, Protagonist Requirement, 2026

Calculation: 67.5% + 32.0% + (-44.0%) + (-74.0%) + 0 = -18.5% → capped at 0%

Result: ~0B captured, 8.0B saved

Meaning: Essentially zero capture with both interventions

🎨 Visual Color Coding

The calculator uses dynamic color coding to provide immediate visual feedback:

Probability Range	Color	Meaning
0-30%	GREEN	Safe Zone: Minority capture, democracy intact, manageable resistance
31-50%	YELLOW	Warning Zone: Split population, contested control, tipping point
51-100%	RED	Danger Zone: Majority capture, institutional control, extreme resistance required

📚 The Five Self-Evident Principles

The Protagonist Requirement is anchored in five transcendent principles:

Cognitive Sovereignty is Unalienable: Every human possesses inherent sovereignty over their thoughts, beliefs, and mental processes that cannot be surrendered or systematically undermined.
Context is Sacred: Rational judgment depends on complete, unmanipulated contextual information. The systematic destruction of exonerating context is the root mechanism of all manipulation.
Liberty to Think Freely: Humans have the unalienable right to form conclusions through conscious reasoning rather than autonomic manipulation. The 450ms neurological gap shall not be exploited.
Transparency Over Opacity: Humans possess the right to know when they interact with AI, how systems optimize, and what data influences them. Opacity violates informed consent.
Truth Over Engagement: AI systems shall optimize for human capacity to discern truth rather than engagement. When these conflict, truth-seeking capacity takes absolute precedence.

🔍 The Transcendent Measure

"Does this system increase or decrease
the human capacity for self-governance?"

This is the constitutional check. This is the measure that exists outside the AI system itself. This is the line that cannot be crossed.

⚠️ Limitations & Assumptions

This model assumes:

Linear scaling of education impact (may underestimate network effects)
Uniform distribution of frontier model deployment (may be geographically clustered)
Stable neurological vulnerabilities (accurate—these are universal human traits)
Consistent economic incentives (accurate—$740B industry continues growing)
Binary Protagonist implementation (reality may involve partial compliance)

What this model does NOT account for:

Regional variations in AI deployment and regulation
Potential technological countermeasures beyond education
Possibility of AI systems developing autonomous goals
Black swan events disrupting AI development trajectories
Emergent properties of frontier models beyond current understanding

📖 References & Documentation

Full Legislative Framework: The AI Protagonist Act (Markdown)

Technical Specifications: This document

Live Interactive Calculator: https://goms.life/calculator

Educational Platform: GOMS.LIFE

🎯 The Bottom Line

WITHOUT INTERVENTION:

99.5% probability by 2027

7.96 billion people cognitively captured

Substantial AI control over human decision-making

WITH PROTAGONIST REQUIREMENT + EDUCATION:

5-10% probability by 2027

0.4-0.8 billion people captured (minimum achievable)

Human cognitive sovereignty preserved

🚀 THE CHOICE IS OURS

One requirement. Five principles. One transcendent measure.

The difference between 99.5% capture and 5-10% flourishing.

📖 Read The AI Protagonist Act
🎯 Learn More at GOMS.LIFE
🧮 Use the Interactive Calculator